天风证券-壹石通-688733-壹石通: 全球勃姆石先锋,电子材料打造第二增长曲线【公众号研报】-210924

　　Anhui Estone Materials Technology (688733 CH) 全球勃姆石先锋，电子材料打造第二增长曲线 Initiating coverage: global boehmite pioneer is building up a second growth driver in electronic materials TP:RMB81 BUY (initiate) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 无机穿刺强度高+单面成本更低，占比稳定在9成。性能：无机涂覆透气率、拉伸及穿刺强度更好，可弥补不够轻薄+粘结性不足的劣势；2）成本：有机材料单吨价格10万以上，无机2万左右，考虑到有机单面用量约为无机50%，预计有机单面成本为无机2.5倍以上。 Performance: inorganic coatings have better air permeability, tensile strength and puncture strength. However, they are not as light or thin, and adhesion is weaker. 安全性+经济性更佳，勃姆石替代氧化铝大势所趋。勃姆石吸水率+磁性异物低，保障隔膜安全。勃姆石比重低，同等涂覆面积下可减少25%用量；硬度低，延长涂布辊使用寿命3~4倍，综合看经济性更佳。目前勃姆石占无机比重为40-50%，预计25年占比将达70%。 Organic materials cost above RMB100,000 per ton while inorganic materials cost about RMB20,000 per ton. For single-sided organic coating materials, considering that its consumption is about 50% that of single-sided inorganic, we estimate its cost at more than 2.5x that of single-sided inorganic coating materials. 勃姆石渗透率仍有空间+盈利好，市场担心的问题是空间和格局。空间：我们预计25年全球锂电池产量2037GWh，涂覆膜占60%，无机占90%，勃姆石占无机70%，单GWh对应200吨，隔膜需求勃姆石13.5万吨。假设正极涂勃姆石占80%，单GWh用50吨，正极需求勃姆石8.1万吨。假设单价为1.8、1.6万元/吨，则25年空间37亿元，假设公司份额50%，则25年收入19亿元，相比21年预测收入3亿元，有6倍的空间。 Comprehensive product categories and product series launches in market segments that serve diverse consumer needs. Direct sales through large stores provide a one-stop consumer experience, with cost-effective, high-quality products and services that have produced loyal customer groups. In the past, its sales network tended to be concentrated. Now, we expect its e-commerce channels and cross-regional store expansion to bring high growth. Implementation of brand strategies has created a brand image that is emotively driven around a cultural vibe. 盈利预测与估值/valuation 投资建议：我们预计壹石通21-23年实现收入4.0、7.6、11.7亿元，归母净利润1.1、2.5、4.0亿元，同比增长135%、133%、63%。给予壹石通明年60倍估值，目标价为81元，首次覆盖，给予“买入评级”。看到2025年，我们预计公司利润在9亿元，30-40X估值下，对应市值270-360亿元。 We expect Estone to generate revenue of RMB400m/760m/1.17bn in 2021/22/23E and net profit of RMB110m/250m/400m, up 135%/133%/63% yoy. We assign a 60x PE for 2022E, with a target price of RMB81. In 2025E, we expect profit to reach RMB900m, with a PE of 30-40x, corresponding to a market cap of RMB27-36bn. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：产能投产不及预期，勃姆石价格下降超预期，电动车销量不及预期，铝价上涨超预期，测算存在主观性，股价波动风险。 Risks include: production capacity schedules falling short of expectations; prices of boehmite declining more than expected; sales volume of electric vehicles failing to meet expectations; prices of aluminum rising more than expected; stock price fluctuations; our calculations might be based on subjective analysis. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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