天风证券-中洲特材-300963-中洲特材: 民用高温合金鳌头,乘下游产业东风【公众号研报】-210924

　　Zhongzhou Special Alloy Materials (300963 CH) 民用高温合金鳌头，乘下游产业东风 Initiating coverage: Civilian market leader in superalloys has the edge in downstream customers BUY(Initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 公司下游应用市场短期存量市场广阔，未来增量市场高景气。公司对接高端民用领域高温耐蚀合金，下游包括石化、核电、汽车、环保等领域，其中核电、汽车等应用领域存量需求大，为公司业绩提供良好支撑。核电、环保等领域受国家政策大力支持，呈现高速增长态势。综合为公司当下稳定和未来确定性增长提供业绩支撑。 Zhongzhou’s downstream market is broad and set to expand with future incremental capacity releases. It has an entrenched position in high-temperature corrosion-resistant alloys at the high end of the civilian market. Its downstream markets include petrochemical, nuclear power, automotive and environmental protection. Nuclear power, automotive and other applications enjoy high inventory demand and support the company's profitability. Policy support is driving its downstream markets such as nuclear power and environmental protection, boosting stability for the company's current and future growth. 公司已进入GE、Emerson、Schlumberger、Velan、L&T、Flowserve、纽威股份等众多国内外大型企业的供应商体系，形成了稳定的客户关系，为未来公司业绩释放打下坚实的基础。高温耐蚀合金和特种合金业务目前均已接近甚至已达到满产满销的水平。2018-2020年公司营业收入/扣非归母净利润三年CAGR达13%/16%。公司铸造高温耐蚀合金和特种合金焊材业务维持高毛利率，始终保持在25%左右。2016年至今公司高温耐蚀合金营收占比一直维持在70%以上，随着未来产能进一步释放，公司业绩仍有较大上升空间。 Zhongzhou supplies to large domestic and foreign companies such as GE, Emerson, Schlumberger, Velan, L&T, Flowserve and Neway. Its stable customer relationships augur well for future incremental profitability. Its products, high-temperature corrosion-resistant alloys and special alloy, are approaching full production with high sales levels. Revenue/net profit had CAGRs of 13%/16% over 2018-20. The company's high-temperature corrosion-resistant alloy casting and special alloy welding consumable businesses maintain high gross profit margins of around 25%. Since 2016, annual high-temperature corrosion-resistant alloy revenues have exceeded 70%. We see high profit growth prospects in view of its planned production capacity releases. 国内民用高温合金领域，呈现出高端产品企业与中低端产品企业共存的局面。中低端产品企业较多，年生产规模一般在1000吨以下。公司作为主供民用高端的大型企业，高温耐蚀合金产能达3100吨，2022年伴随项目投产帮助公司突破产能瓶颈，2023年完全达产后预计将新增2550吨，民用高端高温合金的生产规模远大于其他企业。 In the domestic market for high-temperature alloys for civilian use, many of the manufacturers make mid to low-end products with annual production levels generally below 1,000 tons. As a large-scale high-end civil company, Zhongzhou’s high-temperature corrosion-resistant alloys have a capacity of 3,100 tons. A project that will commence production in 2022E is set to help the company break its capacity bottleneck. We estimate 2,550 tons of additional capacity on reaching full utilization in 2023E. Its production scale in this product is much higher than those of other companies. 盈利预测与估值/valuation 预测2021-2023年公司净利润分别为0.94亿元、1.18亿元和1.27亿元，对应EPS分别为0.79元/股、0.99元/股、1.06元/股。对应目前PE为37.3，29.7，27.6倍，我们认为2022年PE为40-45x为合理的估值区间，对应目标价格区间39.6-44.55元/股。 We expect net profit of RMB94m/118m/127m in2021/22/23E, with corresponding EPS at RMB0.79/0.99/1.06 and current PE at37.3x/29.7x/27.6x. We view a 2022E PE of 40-45x as a reasonable valuationrange, corresponding to a target price range of RMB39.6-44.55. We Initiatecoverage with a BUY call. 风险提示：原材料价格波动；新冠疫情反复；募项目投产受阻；流通股较少导致的股价波动。 Risks include: fluctuating raw material prices; resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic; roadblocks to the launch of fundraising projects; and share price fluctuations caused by lower outstanding shares. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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