天风证券-食品饮料: 白酒静待中秋数据,软饮料行业有望向上【公众号研报】-210917

　　China Food and Beverages 白酒静待中秋数据，软饮料行业有望向上 Baijiu’s next data point is Mid-Autumn Festival and we expect the soft drinks segment to trend up OUTPERFORM (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 上周SW食品饮料上涨2.48%，沪深300上涨3.67%，板块整体回升明显。分子行业看，上周肉制品行业上涨2.40%，食品（综合）行业上涨3.96%，调味发酵品行业上涨1.42%，乳品行业上涨0.42%，啤酒行业上涨3.45%，白酒行业上涨2.54%。 In a significant sector rebound last week, SW F&B rose 2.48% and CSI 300 rose 3.67%. Meat products rose 2.40%, total food rose 3.96%, condiments and pickles rose 1.42%, dairy products rose 0.42%, beer was up 3.45% and baijiu rose 2.54%. 白酒：白酒中报符合预期，次高端白酒板块强势上涨。我们短期持中性谨慎的态度，9月中旬起是验证动销的关键时点. Baijiu: 1H results were in line with expectations; sub-high-end segment rose strongly. Our stance is neutral to cautious in the short term, as the definitive period for mobile sales begins in mid-September. 餐饮产业链（五环）：立高短期利润有所承压，长期看冷冻烘焙趋势不改。立高食品在产品创新及渠道拓展下销售持续高增。 Catering supply chain (ex-metropolitan market): Ligao Foods' short-term profits are underpressure as the trend in frozen pastries is unlikely to change in the long run.Sales of Ligao continued to increase due to product innovations and channelexpansion. 软饮料：养元新品植物奶即将落地，露露三季度仍有望维持高增。养元饮品方面，公司积极推进新品植物奶的落地，我们判断公司有望通过植物奶培育第二增长曲线，看好公司未来发展。 Soft drinks: Yangyuan’s new plant-based milk product is about to launch and we expect Lolo to maintain high growth in 3Q. 重点推荐/Recommendation 当前重点推荐：五粮液，东鹏饮料，承德露露，中国飞鹤，新乳业; 建议关注：青岛啤酒，华润啤酒，千味央厨 Recommendations: Wuliangye Yibin (000858 CH, BUY), Eastroc Beverage (Group) (605499 CH, ACCUMULATE; Downgraded from BUY), Hebei Cheng De Lolo Company (000848 CH, BUY), China Feihe (6186 HK, BUY) ,New Hope Dairy (002946 CH, BUY); Notable: Tsingtao Brewery Company (600600 CH, BUY). Other stocks (not rated): China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company, Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Risks include: pandemic management affecting consumption scenarios; terminal sales falling below expectations; factors hampering high-end market progress; and food safety issues. 风险提示：疫情导致的消费场景受限、终端动销不达预期，高端化进程受阻，食品安全问题等等。 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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Ratings Definitions Investment Ratings Category Description Ratings System Stock investment ratings within 6 months from the report issuance date, increase or decrease relative to the Index of the jurisdiction of the Stock in the same period Buy Expected relative return over stock price above 20% Accumulate Expected relative return over stock price between 10% and 20% Neutral Expected relative return over stock price between -10% and 10% Sell Expected relative return over stock price below -10% Industry investment ratings within 6 months from the report issuance date, increase or decrease relative to the Index of the jurisdiction of the Industry in the same period Outperform Expected increase of industry index over 5% Neutral Expected increase of industry index between -5% and 5% Underperform Expected increase of industry index below -5% Jurisdictions Index Used for Ratings Definitions China Mainland CSI 300 Index China-Hong Kong Hang Seng Index China-Marco Hang Seng Index USA Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Copyright of the publications belong to TFGroup. 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