天风证券-金博股份-688598-金博股份:碳基复材龙头,成长空间广阔【公众号研报】-210906

　　KBC Corporation (688598 CH) 碳基复材龙头，成长空间广阔 Initiating coverage: high-growth prospects for carbon-based composite materials market leader TP:RMB499 BUY(initiate) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 短期看，基于材料性能优势、产品经济性提升以及国产替代的需求，碳基复材将逐步替代等静压石墨产品，2020-2023年将有50%+的复合增速。中期看，光伏新增装机增长带动热场耗用量不断提升，叠加新增和改造需求，使热场行业增速达35%，超光伏行业整体24%的增速。长期看，碳基复材应用领域广阔，在半导体热场（预计2025年市场空间15亿元）、刹车制动（预计2025年市场空间280亿元）、动密封、耐腐蚀等领域均可应用。 In the short term, carbon-based composite materials would gradually replace isostatic graphite products due to the former’s better performance and economic improvements, and demand for domestic substitution. We expect a CGR of 50%+ over 2020-23E. In the medium term, growth of new PV installations would drive a continuous increase in thermal materials’ consumption. Also, demand for additions and renovations has enabled the thermal materials industry to grow at a rate of 35%, faster than the total PV industry’s 24%. In the long term, carbon-based composite materials have broad applications, including the semiconductor thermal industry (potentially RMB1.5bn in 2025E), brakes (potentially RMB28bn in 2025E), dynamic sealing, corrosion resistance and others. 得益于碳纤维预制体自制+定向气流快速化学气相沉积技术+沉积与高温炉自制三大优势，公司成本远低于同业。其中自研、自制设备&快速沉积技术使公司折旧仅为同业的30%左右，可提升毛利率16pct；预制体自制可降低成本约82元/kg，对应毛利率提升9pct；单一天然气沉积路线也使公司相较采用丙烯热解再做浸渍、固化、炭化的厂商有6pct的毛利率优势。 随时间推移，未来公司仍可保持相较二线企业20pct+的毛利率优势，主要包括两方面：固有优势方面，沉积路线优势逐渐消减至0-1%，快速沉积&自制设备优势降低至10%左右，预制体自制优势在9%左右，合计20%左右；新增优势方面，公司可继续提高国产碳纤维的使用比例，降低材料成本，同时通过自制机加工设备、缩短沉积周期继续降低制造费用。 Revenue: 1H21 revenue came to RMB1.25bn, an increase of 86.79% yoy, mainly due to the weakening impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in 1H21, normalizing business growth; and faster revenue growth vs 1H20. We see two major drivers: frozen baked goods took in revenue of RMB732m, up 103.38% yoy, accounting for 58.47% of total revenue, up 4.77ppt yoy; and baking ingredients achieved revenue of RMB519m, up 67.63% yoy, accounting for 41.47% of total revenue, down 4.74ppt yoy. 盈利预测与估值/Valuation 受益于碳碳热场渗透率与公司市占率提升，公司业绩快速增长，给予公司2022年60倍PE，对应2022年目标价449元，给予“买入”评级。 Benefiting from the increase in thermal carbon market penetration and KBC’s market share, its net profit is rising. We assign a 60x PE in 2022E, corresponding to a target price of RMB449 in 2022E. We rate the stock a BUY. 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，行业政策变动，测算具有一定主观性（市场空间假设与公司产能持续扩大的假设），仅供参考，新业务拓展具有不确定性，5%以上股东近期减持导致股价波动风险。 Risks include: less-than-expected downstream demand; industry policy changes; uncertainties of new business developments; and the recent reduction of more than 5% of shareholders adds risk of share price fluctuations. Note: our calculations are subjective (based on assumptions of market value and of continuous expansion of the company's production capacity) and are only for reference. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. 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